Semi-parametric Forecasting of Spikes in Electricity Prices
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
NCER Working Paper Series Forecasting Spikes in Electricity Prices
In many electricity markets, retailers purchase electricity at an unregulated spot price and sell to consumers at a heavily regulated price. Consequently the occurrence of extreme movements in the spot price represents a major source of risk to retailers and the accurate forecasting of these extreme events or price spikes is an important aspect of effective risk management. Traditional approach...
متن کاملSpikes and Memory in (nord Pool) Electricity Price Spot Prices
www.stat.unipd.it/fare-ricerca/seminari DIPARTIMENTO DI SCIENZE STATISTICHE UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DI PADOVA 2 SPIKES AND MEMORY IN (NORD POOL) ELECTRICITY PRICE SPOT PRICES TOMMASO PROIETTI FULL PROFESSOR OF ECONOMIC STATISTICS DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE UNIVERSITY OF ROME “TOR VERGATA”
متن کاملForecasting Electricity Load and Prices in an Algerian Deregulated Market
In a competitive electricity market environment, power producers and consumers need, on one hand, accurate load and/or electricity consumption forecasting tools. These tools will ensure an a-priori knowledge on the amount of energy needed for production. On the other hand, forecasting electricity prices, may play a very important role for producers and consumers when planning bidding strategies...
متن کاملMultiple Model Forecasting of Australian Regional Wholesale Electricity Prices
The expertise of electricity load forecasting has developed over decades. Some of the best load forecasting models use this expertise to improve the load forecasting accuracy by splitting the forecasting problem into sub-problems such as for weekend/weekday and peak/off peak. This research is designed to evaluate a method based on boosting algorithms to split the data into sub-problems for pric...
متن کاملModelling Spikes in Electricity
During periods of market stress, electricity prices can rise dramatically. Electricity retailers cannot pass these extreme prices on to customers because of retail price regulation. Improved prediction of these price spikes, therefore, is important for risk management. This paper builds a time-varying-probability Markov-switching model of Queensland electricity prices, aimed particularly at for...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Economic Record
سال: 2013
ISSN: 0013-0249
DOI: 10.1111/1475-4932.12072